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Hospital Surge Model

Public Health Emergency Preparedness

This resource was part of AHRQ's Public Health Emergency Preparedness (PHEP) program, which was discontinued on June 30, 2011, in a realignment of Federal efforts.

This information is for reference purposes only. It was current when produced and may now be outdated. Archive material is no longer maintained, and some links may not work. Persons with disabilities having difficulty accessing this information should contact us at: Let us know the nature of the problem, the Web address of what you want, and your contact information.

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The AHRQ Hospital Surge Model estimates the resources needed in your hospital(s) to treat casualties resulting from specific biological, chemical, nuclear, or radiological scenarios. For the selected scenario, the model estimates the number of casualties and the required hospital resources to treat the casualties.

Note: The Hospital Surge Model went out of existence when its support contract ended on September 30, 2011.


The Hospital Surge Model includes 13 different scenarios:

  • Biological (anthrax, smallpox, pandemic influenza, or pneumonic plague).
  • Chemical (chlorine, sulfur mustard, or sarin).
  • Nuclear (1 KT or 10 KT explosion).
  • Radiological (dispersion device or point source).
  • Foodborne (botulism neurotoxin).
  • Conventional explosions (improvised explosive device).

Funding and leadership to support the Hospital Surge Model were provided by the Health and Human Services' Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response through an Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) contract to Abt Associates Inc. (Contract Nos. 290-20-06000-11I and HHSA290200600011I).


  • User Manual: Guides users through the steps involved in running the surge model.
  • Description: Discusses the surge model and its assumptions.

The contract ended in 2011, and the Hospital Surge Model is no longer available.

Current as of October 2010


The information on this page is archived and provided for reference purposes only.


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